Manchester City’s home defence is a good as any side in the Premier League and, with no telling how many goals they’ll help themselves to against sickly Cardiff, it’s the 18/25 about a home win to nil that rates best wager material.
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Three of the six goals City have conceded at home came in one game.
Arsenal’s doomed attempt to live with the Citizens remains responsible for half of all home league concessions at the Etihad this term, with six of the hosts’ 10 home wins accompanied by clean sheets.
They’re even tightening up away from home now and it’s been three games since Manuel Pellegrini’s men last gave their adversaries cause for even the most muted of hurrahs.
Cardiff have drawn a blank in five of their last seven away games.
The Bluebirds have rolled over for the home side on five of their last seven Premier League road trips and that has much to do with their inability to locate the net.
Among the sides who can gloat over clean sheets at the Welsh side’s expense are Aston Villa, who ‘boast’ the division’s second-poorest home record.
Only Stoke average less shots per game than Cardiff in the top flight this term.
A certain timidity when it comes to testing the opposition goalkeeper can’t have helped their cause in the search for away points.
Across their last two Premier League away games, incidentally against Arsenal and Liverpool, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s men have managed just five shots on target.
The likelihood is that City’s defence won’t have to be at it’s miserly best to record the shut out.
Cardiff look short at 14/1 to beat their hosts for the second time this season, while a straight Man City victory can be backed at 13/100 and a draw is a 29/4 shot.